- In Connecticut: Litchfield County
- In Massachusetts: Berkshire County
- In Vermont: Bennington & Windham Counties
- In New York: Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Montgomery, Greene, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Schoharie, Ulster, Warren and Washington Counties
Dear Emergency Managers and other partners,
A storm system will bring widespread precipitation to the forecast area Sunday night into Tuesday, including the potential for a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
There are a wide variety of solutions this storm could produce across the region. Anything from a cold rain to a large area of mixed precipitation is possible.
Warmest solution:
- Widespread 1-2 inches of rain leading to rises on rivers to near bankful.
- With large amounts of ice noted on smaller creeks and streams, and river rises expected on Monday, there will be a threat of some minor localized flooding due to ice breaking up and clogging small pipes and culverts. Ice is not yet thick enough to jam on larger rivers.
Middle solution:
- The northeastern part of the Albany forecast area (southern Adirondacks, Lake George/Saratoga region, northern Taconics, southern Vermont and the northern Berkshires) would see mixed precipitation in the form of snow, sleet and freezing rain.
- Enough ice could form to down trees and power lines and lead to scattered power outages.
- The southwestern part of the area would see mostly rain with rises on area creeks, streams and rivers.
Coldest solution:
- Mixed precipitation (i.e. sleet and freezing rain) would affect portions of the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, Capital District, mid-Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires, southern Taconics and Litchfield County, Connecticut.
- Enough ice could form to down trees and power lines and lead to scattered power outages.
- Areas north and east would see mostly snow and sleet, with a moderate accumulation, enough to plow.
Timing of this system:
- Light precipitation begins around sunset Sunday evening, becoming steadier and heavier overnight.
- Steady to heavy precipitation continues for most of Monday, becoming lighter by the evening.
As of right now, we are favoring more of the colder solution; however, there remains a great deal of uncertainty and further changes are expected.