Here is the latest information regarding potential impacts from Dorian later this week. No conference calls are planned at this time. We expect to have more details as this week progresses.

Period of greatest Threat: Late Friday into Saturday morning

Locations most at risk: Cape and islands, as well as the adjacent coastal waters

Confidence: Low confidence overall, especially in regards to wind and rainfall impacts. That will depend on the track, size and speed of Dorian. High confidence in a rip current threat late Wednesday into Sunday along ocean-exposed, south-facing beaches. Rough surf is likely, too.

While an offshore track is most likely, it should be noted the average error the past 5 years for a forecast at this time range is about 105 miles. Should Dorian track farther south and east, the wind and rainfall threats would be reduced. The rip current/rough surf threat is almost a certainty. As of the 5 PM forecast, the wind treat for portions of southern New England has remained nearly steady. The greatest threat remains over the coastal waters south and east of Nantucket.

The next scheduled briefing is after the 11 AM Wednesday advisory from the National Hurricane Center, unless there is a need for a briefing sooner. Should you require any updates prior to that time, please feel free to contact us.

Matthew Belk