Good morning everyone,
You will find attached the latest update on Tropical Storm Isaias. The main changes with this update were a track farther to the west and decrease in probability of tropical storm force winds (that is, sustained winds >= 39 mph).
Threats:
Potential for 2-4" heavy rain with localized 6" and strong winds of 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Also, there is potential for minor coastal flooding and storm surge.
Timing:
Late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Confidence:
Confidence remains low. A slight shift in track will have significant implications on the axis of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds.
Severe Potential Today:
There remains a small chance for a few isolated strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening. The main threats would be localized damaging winds with a very low but non-zero risk of tornadoes. Localized urban poor drainage flooding with heavy downpours.
Thanks,
Bryce Williams and Matt Belk