Good afternoon everyone,

Here is the latest thinking about the coastal storm which will pass southeast of New England late Monday into Tuesday. It will bring snow to much of the area Monday afternoon before a change to rain Monday night. 

The key takeaway is that this is expected to be a minor snowfall event, with the exception of  the higher elevations of western and central MA, where as much as 8 inches of snow is possible.

Please see the attached graphics which include:
  • NWS Official Snowfall Forecast
  • NWS Official Winter Hazard Headlines
  • Approximate onset time of snow (Areas in dark gray receive mostly/all rain)
  • Chances of receiving 4 inches or more of snow   
NEW:
  • Winter Storm Warning for the Berkshires as well as the northern half of Worcester County 
  • Winter Weather Advisory for eastern Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden counties; southern half of Worcester County (which includes Worcester) as well as northwestern Middlesex County
What's Changed:  
  • Lowered the amounts in eastern MA and RI along the I-95 corridor. Boston and Providence are not expected to receive accumulating snowfall. 
  • Lowered the amounts across the northern half of CT. Most locations are expected to receive no more than a light accumulation outside of the hills. 
What/Where/When:
  • Snow develops from west to east across much of southern New England Monday afternoon, except near the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands where mainly rain is expected.
  • Snow is expected to be heavy at times late Monday afternoon into evening, especially in the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. Heavy snowfall rates could lead to snow-packed roads and difficult travel.
  • Snow mixes with and changes over to rain from south to north. The higher elevations of northern Worcester County and the Berkshires are expected to remain mostly snow.
Forecast Amounts:
  • 5-8"  in the higher elevations of the Berkshires and in northern Worcester County. 
  • 2-4" in western Middlesex, western Norfolk as well as eastern half of Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden counties. Parts of northern CT hills are expected to receive a similar amount. 
  • Little to no accumulating snow is expected in east and along the I-95 corridor in MA and RI, including the Providence and Boston areas. Hartford and Springfield areas are expected to receive around 1".
  • The consistency of the snow will be heavy and wet. 
Uncertainty:
  • Snow amounts will be highly elevation-dependent, leading to potentially significant countywide differences in snow totals. 
  • If the coastal storm passes farther offshore, snowfall totals will be less, especially across the interior.
  • Conversely, if the storm tracks closer to southern New England, there would be less snow across most of the region, since the higher accumulations would shift to the northwest of MA.
For more details, check out our winter page: https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Expect another briefing no later than Mar 23, 6am EDT. 

Meteorologists: Rodney Chai, Andrew Loconto and Bill Leatham

If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to contact us via this email address, on NWSChat, or at the following:

National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA
46 Commerce Way
Norton, MA 02766
508.622.3280
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