[Weather] [2019.12.01 530 PM] NWS Boston EM Briefing: Weather Hazards Tonight thru early Tuesday

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good evening everyone,

Here is our latest thinking on the upcoming significant winter storm just
beginning to affect Southern New England, continuing to do so through early
Tuesday.

*Watches/Warnings/Advisories:*

1) NEW: Winter Storm Warning expanded to include Western Essex, Southeast
Middlesex and Eastern Hampshire counties in MA for this evening.

*What we expect:*

*Changes:* Increased snow and ice amounts. Stressing two rounds of heavy
snow: tonight into overnight interior MA/northernmost CT, and Monday night
into Tuesday eastern/northeast MA. Other than western and central MA where
lighter snows are expected to continue, mostly rain is expected elsewhere
through late afternoon Monday.

*Tonight into early Monday*

   - Snow becomes heavy at times (1"/hour) shortly after onset and
   continues into the evening hours.
   - Precipitation changes to sleet and freezing rain in northern CT, RI,
   to a sleet/snow mix in northern MA, and to plain rain in southern RI and
   southeast MA for the overnight hours.
   - By daybreak Monday, snow/sleet accumulations of 6-8" possible in
   western and northern MA with approximately 4-6" in Springfield and interior
   Essex County, with 2-5" elsewhere (including MetroWest Boston), except less
   than an inch on Cape Cod/Islands and near the immediate coast in southeast
   MA and southern RI.
   - The snow will be very moisture-laden.  This could make for compact
   snow but it will be heavy to shovel.
   - Wind gusts will increase to 25-40 mph along the south coast late
   Sunday night.

*Monday Night into early Tuesday*

   - Continued/ongoing snow in interior western/central MA will spread into
   eastern MA, northern CT and RI Monday night. Lighter, more manageable snows
   expected in central and western MA and northern CT/RI. However, snow is
   expected to increase in intensity Monday night into Tuesday across eastern
   and northeast MA, with 1"/hr snowfall rates possible in these areas.
   - Impacts to the Tuesday morning commute are possible.

*Winds and Minor Coastal Flood Potential:*

   - Winds will gust to 35-45 mph along coastal areas, with the highest
   gusts over Cape Ann, outer Cape Cod, and the coastal waters off eastern MA.
   - Storm surges of up to 2 feet are expected, but due to low astronomical
   tides, only splashover is expected for east coastal MA, including Cape Cod
   Bay and Nantucket (with northeast winds).  Will keep a close eye on this as
   some pockets on minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out.

*Storm Total Accumulations:*

   - We are still expecting a widespread 8 to 12 inches over much of
   interior MA with as much as a foot possible in the higher Worcester hills
   and 12 to 17 inches in the east slopes of the Berkshires and into areas
   near/north of Route 2 into northeast MA. These snow amounts are for both
   periods of heavy snow combined. Amounts drop off rapidly as one heads
   southeast, with 3 to 5 inches from southern Hartford County eastward to
   Providence and Plymouth and less than an inch on Cape Cod and the Islands.

*Confidence* :

   - Confidence is highest in the warning areas of western and northern MA,
   where >6" of snow in a 12 hour period or 8" in a 24 hour period is likely.
   Confidence decreases moving into I-495 and towards the coast, where east
   winds contributing to temperatures near or just above freezing become
   offset by heavy precipitation rates.
   - Confidence is moderately high for the second round of heavy snow
   Monday night/Tuesday period in eastern MA. How far west these snowbands
   extend is uncertain, which could affect snowfall totals in the Monday night
   to Tuesday period.

-- Andrew Loconto/Frank Nocera


If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to
contact us via this email address, on NWSChat <https://nwschat.weather.gov/>,
or at the following:

National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA
46 Commerce Way
Norton, MA 02766
508.622.3280
Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter
<http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
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