[Weather] NWS Boston EM Briefing: Potential for Flash Flooding Friday/Saturday

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good Afternoon Everyone,

We are monitoring the potential for tropical cyclone development near the
North Carolina coast on Thursday which should track north along the coast
or remain just offshore. Regardless of its development, *the main concern
with this system in southern New England will be the potential for flash
flooding from heavy rainfall Friday into Saturday, especially in more
urbanized areas.*

Here are the key points:


*Track/Strength Uncertainty: High*
It is unknown how the system will develop and where it will eventually
track. If it tracks over the water it will have time to strengthen
somewhat, but if it remains close to the coast, it will remain a rather
weak system.

*Main Threats:*


*Flash Flooding:* We are most confident in the potential for heavy rainfall
Friday into Saturday. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is likely with
locally higher amounts. Minor urban flooding is likely but more significant
urban and small stream flooding is possible depending on where the heaviest
rain falls, which is unknown at this time.


*Wind:* We are less confident in wind impacts due to high uncertainty as to
how the system develops and eventually tracks. It’s quite possible stronger
wind gusts (more than 30-40 mph) remain offshore southeast of Cape Cod and
the Islands or don’t materialize at all. Prevailing direction of any of the
stronger wind gusts should be from the south or southeast.

*Seas:* We are also less confident in how much seas will build given
uncertainty in the wind forecast. Highest seas approaching 10 feet may
affect waters south and east of Cape Cod and the Islands.

*Coastal Flooding:* We are highly confident that the threat is low on both
coasts as tides are relatively low through the weekend.

*Rip Currents:* We have low confidence due to uncertainty in the wind
forecast, but there is the potential for moderate rip currents Friday and
Saturday, possibly into Sunday, mainly at the south coastal beaches.

If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to
contact us via this email address, on NWSChat <https://nwschat.weather.gov/>,
or by phone (508.622.3280).

Thanks,
Joe DelliCarpini and Frank Nocera
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