[Weather] [2023.12.15 AM] NWS Boston EM Briefing: Sun Night-Mon Storm System

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good morning,

Please find attached a one page briefing regarding the potential for
another strong storm to impact southern New England Sunday night into
Monday. As with last week's storm, this system will have the potential to
bring heavy rainfall leading to river flooding, strong winds, and the
potential for coastal flooding. Please find some details below regarding
where the forecast stands at this point in time.

*Heavy Rainfall*

   - 40 to 60 percent chance of 24 hour rainfall exceeding 2 inches across
   most of southern New England between Sunday night and Monday night
   - Up to a 10 percent chance of 24 hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches west
   of I-95
   -  *Confidence is high that this will be an all rain event*

*Strong South Wind Gusts (Monday Afternoon)*

   - 50 to 60 percent chance for 24 hour max wind gusts to exceed 55 mph
   over the coastal areas
   - 20 to 40 percent chance for 24 hour max wind gusts to exceed 55 mph
   inland, with the highest chances over the high terrain (Worcester
   Hills/Berkshires)

*River Flooding*

   - Several southern New England River gauges have at least a 30+ percent
   chance of reaching minor flood stage

*Coastal Flooding*

   - South facing coasts will be at risk for minor to moderate coastal
   flooding if peak storm surge coincides with the Monday afternoon high tide.
   Please find attached a probabilistic hydrograph for Narragansett Bay at Fox
   Point, RI to visualize the current uncertainty.


These are the aspects of the forecast we'll be monitoring closely as we
head into the weekend. At 72 hours out, there is still uncertainty with
respect to the timing, location, and magnitude of impacts. Should
confidence continue to grow, wind/flood/coastal flood headlines may be
issued. We will provide another update with the afternoon forecast package
later this afternoon.

Thank you and have a great weekend,

Meteorologists Rob Megnia and Andrew Loconto

If you have any questions or would like more information, please don't
hesitate to contact us. You can reach us via:
email: box.operations at noaa.gov
phone: 508.622.3280
Slack/NWSChat 2.0 <https://nwschatws.slack.com/> (for approved partners)
social media: Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter
<http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
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