Good morning, Please find attached a one page briefing regarding the potential for another strong storm to impact southern New England Sunday night into Monday. As with last week's storm, this system will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall leading to river flooding, strong winds, and the potential for coastal flooding. Please find some details below regarding where the forecast stands at this point in time. *Heavy Rainfall* - 40 to 60 percent chance of 24 hour rainfall exceeding 2 inches across most of southern New England between Sunday night and Monday night - Up to a 10 percent chance of 24 hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches west of I-95 - *Confidence is high that this will be an all rain event* *Strong South Wind Gusts (Monday Afternoon)* - 50 to 60 percent chance for 24 hour max wind gusts to exceed 55 mph over the coastal areas - 20 to 40 percent chance for 24 hour max wind gusts to exceed 55 mph inland, with the highest chances over the high terrain (Worcester Hills/Berkshires) *River Flooding* - Several southern New England River gauges have at least a 30+ percent chance of reaching minor flood stage *Coastal Flooding* - South facing coasts will be at risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding if peak storm surge coincides with the Monday afternoon high tide. Please find attached a probabilistic hydrograph for Narragansett Bay at Fox Point, RI to visualize the current uncertainty. These are the aspects of the forecast we'll be monitoring closely as we head into the weekend. At 72 hours out, there is still uncertainty with respect to the timing, location, and magnitude of impacts. Should confidence continue to grow, wind/flood/coastal flood headlines may be issued. We will provide another update with the afternoon forecast package later this afternoon. Thank you and have a great weekend, Meteorologists Rob Megnia and Andrew Loconto If you have any questions or would like more information, please don't hesitate to contact us. You can reach us via: email: box.operations@noaa.gov phone: 508.622.3280 Slack/NWSChat 2.0 <https://nwschatws.slack.com/> (for approved partners) social media: Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter <http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
