[Weather] [2019.10.16 PM] Strong to Damaging Winds Possible & Heavy Rain/Poor Drainage Flooding

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good afternoon everyone,

Here is our latest update on a powerful coastal storm which will impact MA,
RI & CT tonight into Thursday morning.

*Changes From Morning Briefing: *

   - *High Wind Warnings Issued*: East Coastal MA (excluding Suffolk
   County), Cape Cod and the Islands. In Effect through 5 PM Thursday.
   - *Wind Advisories Expanded*: Includes the rest of MA, CT and RI outside
   of the High Wind Warnings. In Effect through 6 PM Thursday.
   - *Flood Watches Issued: *Includes northern CT and in MA from Middlesex
   County westward. In effect from late tonight until Thursday morning.
   - *"Marginal Risk" of Severe Weather: *Northern CT, RI into southeast
   MA. Mainly late evening into overnight in shield of wind driven rain.
   * Note: *Low probability of development.

*What/When & Where:*

*Headlines ...*

   - *High Wind Warnings: *East Coast of MA (excluding Suffolk County),
   Cape Cod & Islands Thursday
   - *Wind Advisories - *Rest of MA, RI and all of CT.
   - *Flood Watches*: Northern CT and in Massachusetts from Middlesex
   County westward.

*Strong to Damaging Wind Threat ...*

   - *When* - two surges of wind are expected with the first surge tonight
   (east winds) followed by a stronger surge Thursday morning and afternoon
   (west winds)
   - *Where* - RI into eastern MA but strongest wind over Cape Cod and
   Islands
   - *Impacts* - winds potentially strong enough to down tree limbs and
   result in power outages. Greatest likelihood for these impacts over coastal
   eastern MA, Cape Cod and the Islands, but such impacts possible anywhere.
   - *Uncertainty* - how much strong wind aloft will mix down to the
   surface and areal extent.  Trees remaining fully leaved will require less
   wind for damage to occur.

*Heavy Rainfall Threat & Poor Drainage Flooding ...*

   - *When* - Heaviest rain approximately 10 pm Wednesday to 6 am Thursday
   from southwest to northeast
   - *Where* - Mainly in the Flood Watch area; but possible anywhere.
   - *Impacts* - a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain with localized
   amounts of 4 to 5 inches  remain possible. Poor drainage and urban/street
   flooding would be the main flood impact, as river levels have been running
   low.
   - *Uncertainty* - areal extent of 4 to 5 inch rainfall amounts are
   uncertain.  Updated low and high end rainfall maps attached along with
   mostly likely rainfall amounts to help communicate this uncertainty.


*Severe Weather Threat ... *

   - *When* - Mainly between 10 pm and 5 am Thursday
   - *Where* - Northern CT, RI and eastern MA.
   - *Impacts* - Strong wind fields in conjunction with the heavy rain may
   lead to a *non-zero but low-probability* potential for enhanced wind
   damage in showers with little to no lightning. An isolated tornado cannot
   be ruled out.
   - *Uncertainty* - On development and coverage. This low-probability
   threat, were it to occur, would be embedded in larger shield of heavy
   rain.

Meteorologist: Andrew Loconto

If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to
contact us via this email address, on NWSChat <https://nwschat.weather.gov/>,
or at the following:

National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA
46 Commerce Way
Norton, MA 02766
508.622.3280
Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter
<http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
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