[Weather] [2019.09.03] Hurricane Dorian Briefing for Emergency Management

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good morning,

We wanted to get some updated information out to you regarding potential
impacts from Dorian later this week. No conference calls are planned at
this time. We expect to have more details as this week progresses.

*Period of greatest Threat:* Late Friday into Saturday morning

*Locations most at risk*: Cape and islands, as well as the adjacent coastal
waters

*Confidence*: Low confidence overall, especially in regards to wind and
rainfall. That will depend on the track of Dorian. *High *confidence in a
rip current threat late Wednesday into Saturday along ocean-exposed,
south-facing beaches. Rough surf is likely, too.

While an offshore track is most likely, it should be noted the average
error the past 5 years for a forecast at this time range is *105 miles.* Should
Dorian track farther south and east, the wind and rainfall threats would be
reduced. The rip current/rough surf threat is almost a certainty. As of the
11 AM forecast, there has been a *decreasing *trend in the wind treat for
southern New England. The greatest threat remains over the coastal waters
south and east of Nantucket.

The next scheduled briefing is after the 5 PM advisory from the National
Hurricane Center, unless there is a need for a briefing sooner. Should you
require any updates prior to that time, please feel free to contact us.

Matthew Belk

If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to
contact us via this email address, on NWSChat <https://nwschat.weather.gov/>,
or at the following:

National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA
46 Commerce Way
Norton, MA 02766
508.622.3280
Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter
<http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.massupt.org/pipermail/weather/attachments/20190903/6d7ff2fe/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: Dorian_2.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 782526 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://lists.massupt.org/pipermail/weather/attachments/20190903/6d7ff2fe/attachment-0001.pdf>