[Weather] [2019.09.02 PM] Hurricane Dorian

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good afternoon,

We wanted to get this initial information out to you regarding potential
impacts from Dorian later this week. No conference calls are planned at
this time. We expect to have more details as this week progresses.

*Period of greatest Threat:* Late Friday into Saturday morning

*Locations most at risk*: Cape and islands, as well as the adjacent coastal
waters

*Confidence*: Low confidence overall, especially in regards to wind and
rainfall. That will depend on the track of Dorian. *High *confidence in a
rip current threat late Wednesday into Saturday along ocean-exposed,
south-facing beaches. Rough surf is likely, too.

While an offshore track is most likely, it should be noted the average
error the past 5 years for a forecast at this time range is *140 miles.*
Should Dorian track farther south and east, the wind and rainfall threats
would be reduced. The rip current/rough surf threat is almost a certainty.

The next scheduled briefing is 5 PM Tuesday, unless there is a need for a
briefing sooner.

Matthew Belk

If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to
contact us via this email address, on NWSChat <https://nwschat.weather.gov/>,
or at the following:

National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA
46 Commerce Way
Norton, MA 02766
508.622.3280
Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter
<http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
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