[Weather] [2019.09.04 12 PM] Hurricane Dorian Briefing for Emergency Management

[BOX Operations - NOAA Service Account]

Good afternoon,

Here is the latest information regarding potential impacts from Dorian
later this week. No conference calls are planned at this time. We expect to
have more details later this week.

*Period of greatest Threat:* Friday night into Saturday morning

*Locations most at risk*: Cape and islands, as well as the adjacent coastal
waters

*Confidence*: Low confidence overall, especially in regards to wind and
rainfall impacts. That will depend on the track, size and speed of Dorian.
*High *confidence in a rip current threat late today into Sunday along
ocean-exposed, south-facing beaches. Rough surf is likely, too.

While an offshore track is most likely, it should be noted the average
error the past 5 years for a forecast at this time range is about *90
miles.* Should Dorian track farther south and east, the wind and rainfall
threats would be reduced. The rip current/rough surf threat is almost a
certainty. As of the 11 AM forecast, the wind treat for portions of
southern New England has remained nearly steady across the Cape, Vineyard
and Block Island. The wind threat has *increased *slightly for Nantucket.
The greatest threat remains over the coastal waters south and east of
Nantucket.

The next scheduled briefing is after the 5 PM Wednesday advisory from the
National Hurricane Center, unless there is a need for a briefing sooner.
Should you require any updates prior to that time, please feel free to
contact us.

Matthew Belk

If you have any questions or would like more information, don't hesitate to
contact us via this email address, on NWSChat <https://nwschat.weather.gov/>,
or at the following:

National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA
46 Commerce Way
Norton, MA 02766
508.622.3280
Website <http://www.weather.gov/boston> | Facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston> | Twitter
<http://www.twitter.com/NWSBoston>
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